Kusukela ngo-2020, kuthinteke ukukhula kwesidingo saphesheya kwezilwandle, ukwehla kwezinga lokushintshwa kwemikhumbi, ukuminyana kwemikhumbi, ukuhanjiswa kwempahla nezinye izinto, imithwalo yasolwandle yamazwe omhlaba ibilokhu ikhuphuka, futhi nemakethe “ayilingani”.Kusukela ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka, international esitsheni sea wezimpahla kusukela ukushaqeka eliphezulu futhi abanye ukulungiswa.Idatha evela e-Shanghai Shipping Exchange ibonise ukuthi ngoNovemba 18, 2022, inkomba yezimpahla ezithunyelwa ngaphandle eShanghai yavalwa ngamaphuzu angu-1306.84, iqhubeka nokwehla kwezinga kusukela ngekota yesithathu.Engxenyeni yesithathu yekota, njengenkathi ephakeme evamile yokuhweba ngemikhumbi yamabhokisi emhlabeni wonke, amanani ezimpahla zokuthutha awazange abonise ukukhula okuphezulu, kodwa abonise ukwehla okukhulu.Yiziphi izizathu zalokhu, futhi ubona kanjani ukuthambekela kwezimakethe zesikhathi esizayo?

Ukwehla kwesidingo kuthinta okulindelwe
Njengamanje, ukukhula kwe-GDP yeminotho emikhulu yomhlaba kwehle kakhulu, futhi idola laseMelika likhuphule izinga lenzalo ngokushesha, okubangele ukuqina kokuqina kwezimali emhlabeni jikelele.Kuhlanganiswe nomthelela wobhadane lwe-COVID-19 kanye nokwehla kwamandla emali okuphezulu, ukukhula kwesidingo sangaphandle kuye kwaba kunobuvila futhi kwaqala nokuncipha.Ngesikhathi esifanayo, izinselele zokukhula komnotho wasekhaya zandile.Ukukhula okulindelekile kokuwohloka komnotho emhlabeni wonke kubeka ingcindezi ekuhwebeni komhlaba kanye nesidingo sabathengi.
Ngokombono wesakhiwo somkhiqizo, kusukela ngo-2020, izinto zokuvimbela ubhubhane ezimelwe yindwangu, izidakamizwa kanye nemishini yezokwelapha kanye "nomnotho wasekhaya" omelwe ifenisha, izinto zikagesi zasendlini, imikhiqizo ye-elekthronikhi nezindawo zokuzijabulisa zibone ukukhula kokusetshenziswa okusheshayo.Ngokuhambisana nezici zezimpahla zabathengi "zomnotho wasekhaya", njengenani eliphansi, umthamo omkhulu kanye nomthamo omkhulu weziqukathi, izinga lokukhula lokuthunyelwa kweziqukathi kwamanye amazwe lifinyelele esigabeni esisha phezulu.
Ngenxa yezinguquko endaweni yangaphandle, ukuthunyelwa kwempahla evalelwa ngaphandle kanye nemikhiqizo “yomnotho wasekhaya” kwehlile kusukela ngo-2022. Kusukela ngoJulayi, umkhuba wokukhula kwenani lokuthunyelwa kwamabhokisi okuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kanye nenani lokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe seliphinde lahlehla.
Ngokombono we-inventory e-Europe nase-United States, abathengi abakhulu emhlabeni, abathengisi nabakhiqizi bahlangabezane nenqubo yokushoda, ukuphikisana komhlaba wonke kwezimpahla, izimpahla ezisendleleni eya ekusungulweni okuphezulu esikhathini esingaphezudlwana nje kweminyaka emibili.E-United States, isibonelo, abanye abathengisi abakhulu njenge-Wal-Mart, i-Best Buy ne-Target banezinkinga ezinzima zokuqoqa, ikakhulukazi ku-TVS, izinto zasekhishini, ifenisha nezingubo."Impahla ephezulu, okunzima ukuyithengisa" isiyinkinga evamile kubathengisi baseYurophu nase-US, futhi lolu shintsho ludambisa isikhuthazo sokungenisa abathengi, abathengisi nabakhiqizi.
Mayelana nokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe, kusukela ngowezi-2020 kuya kowezi-2021, okuthintwe ukusabalala kwalolu bhubhane emhlabeni wonke kanye nokuvimbela nokulawula okuhlosiwe nephumelelayo kweChina, ukuthunyelwa kwe-China kwamanye amazwe kunikeze ukwesekwa okubalulekile kokusimama komnotho wawo wonke amazwe.Isabelo seShayina sengqikithi yokuthunyelwa kwempahla emhlabeni wonke sikhuphuke sisuka ku-13% ngo-2019 saya ku-15% ekupheleni kuka-2021. Kusukela ngo-2022, umthamo owawunenkontileka ngaphambilini e-United States, Germany, Japan, South Korea kanye naseNingizimu-mpumalanga Asia ululame ngokushesha.Ngokuhambisana nomthelela “wokuhlukaniswa” kwezinye izimboni, isabelo sezimpahla ezithunyelwa ngaphandle zaseShayina sesiqalile ukwehla, okuphinde kube nomthelela ongaqondile ekukhuleni kwesidingo sokuhwebelana kweziqukathi zaseChina.

Umthamo osebenzayo uyakhululwa ngenkathi isidingo siba buthaka, ukuhlinzekwa olwandle kuyanda.
Njengomholi wenani eliphakeme eliqhubekayo lezimpahla ezithunyelwa emhlabeni wonke, umzila we-Far East-America nawo "uyindawo yokuvinjwa" ebalulekile yomzila womhlaba wonke wokuthuthwa kweziqukathi.Ngenxa yokwanda kwesidingo sase-US kusukela ngo-2020 kuya ku-2021, ukubambezeleka kokuthuthukiswa kwengqalasizinda yechweba kanye nokuntuleka kosayizi abafanelekile bemikhumbi, amachweba ase-US ahlangabezane nokuminyana okukhulu.
Isibonelo, imikhumbi yamabhokisi ethekwini lase-Los Angeles yake yachitha isilinganiso sezinsuku ezingaphezu kweziyi-10 igibele, futhi eminye yaze yaba umugqa izinsuku ezingaphezu kwezingu-30 iyodwa.Ngaso leso sikhathi, ukukhuphuka kwamazinga omthwalo wempahla kanye nesidingo esinamandla kudonse inqwaba yemikhumbi namabhokisi asuka kweminye imizila eya kulo mzila, okuphinde kwaqinisa ngokungaqondile ukushuba kweminye imizila nokufunwa kwempahla, okwake kwadala ukungalingani “kwesitsha esisodwa kunzima. ukuthola” kanye “nendlwana eyodwa kunzima ukuyithola”.
Njengoba isidingo sehlile futhi nezimpendulo zechweba seziye zaba ngamabomu kakhulu, ezesayensi nokuhleleka, ukuminyana emachwebeni aphesheya kuye kwaba ngcono kakhulu.Imizila yeziqukathi zomhlaba wonke ibuyele kancane kancane ekuhleleni kokuqala, futhi inqwaba yeziqukathi ezingenalutho zaphesheya zibuyile, okwenza kube nzima ukubuyela esimweni sangaphambili sokuthi "isitsha esisodwa kunzima ukusithola" futhi "isitsha esisodwa kunzima ukusithola".
Ngokwenziwa ngcono kokungalingani phakathi kokuhlinzekwa kwempahla kanye nesidingo semizila emikhulu, izinga lokugcinwa kwesikhathi kwemikhumbi yezinkampani ezinkulu zomhlaba zamalayini nalo seliqale ukukhuphuka kancane kancane, futhi amandla okuthutha asebenzayo emikhumbi asededelwe ngokuqhubekayo.Kusukela ngoMashi kuya kuJuni 2022, izinkampani ezinkulu zamalayini zilawule cishe amaphesenti ayi-10 omthamo wazo wokungenzi lutho ngenxa yokwehla ngokushesha kwenani lomthwalo wemigqa emikhulu, kodwa azizange zimise ukwehla okuqhubekayo kwamanani ezimpahla.
Ngesikhathi esifanayo, amasu okuncintisana ezinkampani zemikhumbi nawo aqala ukuhlukana.Amanye amabhizinisi aqala ukuqinisa ukutshalwa kwezimali kwengqalasizinda yasogwini, ukutholwa kwabathengi abathile bezimpahla kanye nezinkampani zempahla, ukusheshisa ukuguqulwa kwedijithali;Amanye amabhizinisi aqinisa ukuguqulwa kwemikhumbi yamandla emisha, ahlola imikhumbi yamandla emisha exhaswe ngamafutha e-LNG, i-methanol namandla kagesi.Ezinye izinkampani nazo zaqhubeka nokwandisa ama-oda emikhumbi emisha.
Ethintwa izinguquko zakamuva zesakhiwo emakethe, ukuntula ukuzethemba kuyaqhubeka nokusabalala, futhi izinga lokuthuthwa kwempahla yomhlaba wonke liye lehla ngokushesha, futhi imakethe yamabala yehle ngisho nangaphezu kuka-80% ekuphakameni kwayo okuhlobene nenani eliphakeme.Abathwali, abathumeli bempahla kanye nabanikazi bezimpahla zomdlalo wamandla akhulayo.Isikhundla esiqinile senkampani yenethiwekhi sesiqala ukucindezela amamajini enzuzo yabadluliseli.Ngesikhathi esifanayo, intengo yendawo kanye nentengo yokubopha isikhathi eside yeminye imizila emikhulu iyahlanekezelwa.Amanye amabhizinisi aphakamise ukuthi afune ukuphinde axoxisane ngenani lentengo yesikhathi eside, okungase kuholele ekwephulweni kwenkontileka yezokuthutha.Kodwa-ke, njengesivumelwano esigxile emakethe, akulula ukuguqula isivumelwano, futhi ubhekene nengozi enkulu yesinxephezelo.

Kuthiwani ngamathrendi amanani esikhathi esizayo
Kusukela esimweni samanje, isitsha esizayo sempahla yasolwandle siyehla noma sibe sincane.
Ngokombono wesidingo, ngenxa yokuqina kokushoda kwemali emhlabeni wonke okubangelwe ukushesha kokukhuphuka kwezinga lenzalo yamadola aseMelika, ukwehla kwesidingo sabathengi kanye nezindleko ezidalwe ukwehla kwamandla emali okuphezulu eYurophu nase-United States, ukuqoqwa kwempahla ephezulu kanye nokwehla kwenani lemali ethengwayo. isidingo sokungeniswa kwamanye amazwe eYurophu nase-United States nezinye izici ezimbi, isidingo sokuthuthwa kwamabhokisi singase siqhubeke sidangele.Kodwa-ke, ukukhishwa kwakamuva kwenkomba yolwazi lwabathengi base-US kanye nokutholwa kokuthunyelwa kwe-China okuthekelisa njengempahla encane yasendlini kungase kunciphise ukwehla kwesidingo.
Ngokombono wokuhlinzekwa kwempahla, ukuminyana kwamachweba aphesheya kuzophinde kudambiswe, ukusebenza kahle kwemikhumbi kulindeleke ukuthi kuthuthukiswe futhi, kanye nesivinini sokulethwa komthamo wemikhumbi engxenyeni yesine singasheshiswa, ngakho-ke imakethe ibhekene nezinkinga ezinkulu. ukucindezelwa ngokweqile.
Kodwa-ke, njengamanje, izinkampani ezinkulu zamalayini seziqalile ukwenza umjikelezo omusha wezinyathelo zokumiswa, futhi ukukhula kwamandla asebenzayo emakethe kuyalawuleka.Ngaso leso sikhathi, ukungqubuzana kwe-Russia-Ukraine kanye nokukhuphuka kwamanani entengo kagesi emhlabeni wonke nakho kulethe ukungaqiniseki okuningi enkambweni yemakethe yesikhathi esizayo.Sekukonke ukwahlulela, imboni yeziqukathi zekota yesine isasesigabeni “sokuguquguquka”, okulindelwe okukhuphukayo kusantula ukusekelwa okuqinile, ukucindezela komkhumbi okuya phansi sekukonke, ukwehla noma ukuncipha.
Ngokombono wezinkampani zemikhumbi, kuyadingeka ukwenza amalungiselelo anele omthelela “we-ebb tide” embonini yeziqukathi.Ukutshalwa kwezimali ngomkhumbi kungase kuqaphe kakhulu, kubambe kangcono inani lamanje lomkhumbi kanye nomthelela ojikelezayo wezimpahla ezimakethe, ukhethe amathuba angcono okutshala imali;Kufanele sinake izinguquko ezintsha esivumelwaneni se-RCEP, ukuhwebelana kwesifunda, ukuthunyelwa kwemikhumbi okuqondile kanye neketango elibandayo ukuze sisondele kubanikazi bezimpahla futhi sithuthukise amakhono ethu esevisi yochungechunge lokuhlinzeka ngezinto ezididiyelwe kanye nezinzuzo zokuncintisana.Ukuhambisana nenkambiso yamanje yokuhlanganiswa kwezinsiza zamachweba, kuqinise intuthuko edidiyelwe namachweba, futhi kugqugquzelwe ukuthuthukiswa okudidiyelwe kwamagatsha aphansi naphakathi.Ngesikhathi esifanayo, khulisa ukuguqulwa kwedijithali kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwebhizinisi futhi uthuthukise ikhono lokuphatha ipulatifomu.
Ngokombono wabathumeli bemikhumbi, kufanele sinakisise kakhulu izinguquko zesakhiwo sokusetshenziswa phesheya kwezilwandle futhi silwele ukuthola ama-oda okuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe.Sizolawula ngokufanelekile izindleko ezikhuphukayo zezinto zokusetshenziswa, silawule ngempumelelo izindleko zempahla yemikhiqizo eqediwe, sikhuthaze ukuthuthukiswa kwemikhiqizo ethunyelwa ngaphandle kanye nokuqanjwa kabusha kwezobuchwepheshe, futhi sikhulise inani elengeziwe lezimpahla ezithunyelwa ngaphandle.Naka kakhulu ukwesekwa kwenqubomgomo kazwelonke yokuthuthukisa ukuhwebelana kwamanye amazwe futhi uhlanganise nendlela yokuthuthukisa ye-e-commerce ewela imingcele.
Ngokombono womthumeli wempahla, kuyadingeka ukulawula izindleko zekhephithali, ukuthuthukisa ikhono lonke lesevisi yezokuthutha, futhi kuvinjwe inkinga ye-supply chain engase idalwe ukugqashuka kwe-capital chain.