Muva nje, inkampani eyeluleka i-Fitch - i-Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (BMI), i-Benchmark Mineral Intelligence ikhiphe umbiko wokubikezela, 2023-2027, isilinganiso sokukhula kwaminyaka yonke kokukhiqizwa kwensimbi yomhlaba wonke kulindeleke ukuthi sibe ngu-2.3%, Eminyakeni emihlanu edlule (2017- 2022), inkomba yayingu-0.7%.Lokhu kuzosiza ukukhulisa ukukhiqizwa kwe-iron ore ngamathani ayizigidi ezingama-372.8 ngo-2027 uma kuqhathaniswa no-2022, kusho umbiko.
Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ijubane lokukhiqizwa kwe-iron ore emhlabeni wonke lizokhula ngesivinini.
Umbiko uveze ukuthi ukwanda kokusatshalaliswa kwensimbi emhlabeni jikelele okuzayo kuzovela ikakhulukazi eBrazil nase-Australia.Njengamanje, u-Vale uveze uhlelo olusebenzayo lokunweba emhlabeni wangaphandle.Ngesikhathi esifanayo, i-BHP Billiton, i-Rio Tinto, i-FMG nayo ihlela ukutshala imali kumaphrojekthi amasha okwandisa.Izibonelo zifaka i-Iron Bridge, elandelwa yi-FMG, kanye ne-Gudai Darri, elandelwa yi-Rio Tinto.
Umbiko uthe eminyakeni emithathu kuya kwemine ezayo, ukukhiqizwa kwensimbi yaseChina kuzokwanda.Njengamanje, iShayina izama ukukhulisa izinga lokuzanelisa futhi kancane kancane izikhiphe ekuncikeni ezimayini zase-Australia.Ukuthuthukiswa okusebenzayo “kohlelo lwetshe legumbi” kukhuthaze ukwanda kokukhiqizwa kwamabhizinisi ezimayini aseShayina, futhi kwasheshisa nokuthuthukiswa kwezimayini zaphesheya kwezilwandle yizinkampani zaseShayina ezifana ne-Baowu, njengephrojekthi ye-Xipo yaseChina i-Baowu kanye ne-Rio Tinto.Lo mbiko ulindele ukuthi izinkampani ezinkulu zaseChina zibeke phambili ukutshalwa kwezimali ezimayini zensimbi zaphesheya kwezilwandle, njengemayini enkulukazi yaseSimandou.
Umbiko uphinde ubikezele ukuthi kusukela ngo-2027 kuya ku-2032, isilinganiso sokukhula kwaminyaka yonke kokukhiqizwa kwensimbi yomhlaba wonke kulindeleke ukuthi sibe -0.1%.Ngokombiko, ukwehla kokukhula kokukhiqiza kungase kubangelwe ukuvala kwezimayini ezincane kanye namanani entengo ensimbi aphansi okwenza abavukuzi abakhulu behlise ukutshalwa kwezimali kumaphrojekthi amasha.
Ngokombiko, kusukela ngo-2023 kuya ku-2027, ukukhiqizwa kwe-iron ore yase-Australia kuzokhula ngesilinganiso sokukhula sonyaka esingu-0.2%.Kubikwa ukuthi isilinganiso sezindleko zokukhiqiza zensimbi e-Australia yi-$ 30 / ton, iNtshonalanga Afrika i-$ 40 / ton ~ $ 50 / ton, kanti i-China ingu-$ 90 / ton.Ngenxa yokuthi i-Australia iphansi kwejika lezindleko zensimbi yomhlaba wonke, kulindeleke ukuthi inikeze isivimbeli esinempilo ngokumelene nokwehla kwamanani ensimbi yomhlaba wonke eminyakeni embalwa ezayo.
Ukukhiqizwa kwe-iron ore yaseBrazil kulindeleke ukuthi kuphinde kubuyele emuva eminyakeni embalwa ezayo.Ngokombiko, lokhu ikakhulukazi kungenxa yezindleko eziphansi zokukhiqiza nokusebenza kwesifunda, imali eyanele yephrojekthi, ukuphiwa kwezinsiza, nokwanda kokuthandwa kwabakhi bensimbi baseChina.Umbiko ubikezela ukuthi kusukela ngo-2023 kuya ku-2027, ukukhiqizwa kwe-iron ore yaseBrazil kuzokhula ngesilinganiso sokukhula kwaminyaka yonke sika-3.4%, kusuka kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-56.1 kuya kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-482.9 ngonyaka.Kodwa-ke, ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, izinga lokukhula kokukhiqizwa kwe-iron ore eBrazil lizokwehla, futhi isilinganiso sokukhula sonyaka kulindeleke ukuthi sibe yi-1.2% kusukela ku-2027 kuya ku-2032, futhi ukukhiqizwa kuzofinyelela amathani ayizigidi ezingu-507.5 / ngonyaka ku-2032.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, umbiko uphinde wembula ukuthi imayini ye-Vale's Serra Norte iGelado iron ore izokwandisa ukukhiqizwa kulo nyaka;Iphrojekthi ye-N3 kulindeleke ukuthi iqale ngo-2024;Iphrojekthi ye-S11D isivele ikhuphule umkhiqizo ezingxenyeni ezintathu zokuqala zonyaka wezimali, esiza ukukhulisa ukukhiqizwa kwensimbi yensimbi ngamaphesenti angama-5.8 unyaka nonyaka kuya kumathani angama-66.7m, kanti iphrojekthi kulindeleke ukuthi yandise umthamo ngamathani angama-30m ngonyaka. .