Muva nje, izinhlobo zekusasa elimnyama zilethe ukwenyuka okuvamile, okuhlanganisa nezintengo ze-iron ore zesikhathi esizayo zivelele.Ukuvalwa kwezinsuku ezingama-20 kuFebhuwari, inkontileka eyinhloko ye-iron ore ku-917 yuan/ton, usuku lukhuphuke ngo-3.21%.
Kuyaqondakala ukuthi kusukela ngo-February 14, amanani entengo yensimbi yensimbi yesikhathi esizayo esuka ku-835 yuan/ton akhuphuka yonke indlela futhi aphula uphawu lwama-yuan angu-900, izinsuku ezingu-6 zokuhweba zenyuka ngaphezu kuka-8%, ukuphakama okusha okungaphezu kwezinyanga ezingu-9.
U-Qiu Yihong, umhlaziyi we-Haitong Futures, utshele i-China Times: “Insimbi yensimbi ibe ngumdlali ovelele maphakathi no-February, futhi uyena kuphela esigabeni sabamnyama owashaya into ecokeme ngoJanuwari 30. Isizathu sokuthi lo mzuliswano wekusasa ozofika phezulu awukona nje kuphela ukukhulisa isidingo ngaphansi kwesizinda sokukhula okuzinzile, kodwa futhi kuhlobene nokukhuphuka kwentengo ye-iron ore yangaphandle.”
February 21 15 o 'clock, yensimbi inkontileka main ukuvala at 919 yuan/ton.Umhlaziyi we-China Steel Futures u-Zhao Yi ukholelwa ukuthi okwamanje kungene esikhathini sokukhohlisa kwesidingo, esingase siqhubeke kuze kube maphakathi nasekupheleni kuka-Ephreli, ukuthi ngabe isidingo singahlangabezana yini nokulindelwe, noma sidlule okulindelwe, namanje akwaziwa.
Izigayo zensimbi zisebenza ngamanani aphezulu
I-HSBC iphakamise isibikezelo sayo somkhiqizo wasekhaya waseChina (GDP) kulo nyaka safinyelela kumaphesenti angu-5.6 sisuka kumaphesenti angu-5, i-Hong Kong Economic Times yabika ngoFebhuwari 17, yathi i-China ivula kabusha ngokushesha kunalokho obekulindelwe futhi ukufunwa kwezinsizakalo nezimpahla kuzoholela. ekululameni.Ubhubhane olubi kakhulu seludlulile futhi ngeke ludonse ukusebenza kwezomnotho kwekota yokuqala, kanti ukusetshenziswa nokonga ngokweqile kunganikeza umfutho owengeziwe wokusheshisa ukululama nokwenza umnotho uhambe ngendlela, kusho umbiko we-HSBC.
Khonamanjalo, iChina kulindeleke ukuthi ikhule ngamaphesenti angu-5.7 kulo nyaka, okuyenza ibe injini enkulu yokukhula emhlabeni, ngokusho kwe-KPMG.Ngokusho kweNational Bureau of Statistics, iPMI yokukhiqiza yaseChina ngoJanuwari 2023 ibingu-50.1%, ikhuphuke ngamaphesenti angama-3.1 ukusuka ngoDisemba 2022. I-PMI engakhiqizi ibingu-54.4%, ikhuphuke ngamaphesenti ayi-12.8 kusukela ngoDisemba 2022. Abangaphakathi embonini bathi ngezibalo idatha ye-bureau, umnotho ululama kakhulu.
"Umqondo oyinhloko othinta uhlelo lwabamnyama esikhathini esizayo esiseduze ukuqala kwesidingo esiphansi.Ngokocwaningo lwesikhungo sesithathu, kusukela ngoFebhuwari 14, 2023, amabhizinisi kazwelonke okwakha aqale kabusha izinga lomsebenzi elingama-76.5%, okuwukunyuka kwenyanga nenyanga ngamaphesenti angama-38.1.”Umhlaziyi wekusasa leChina Steel uZhao Yi utshele intatheli yaseChina Times.
Ngokwemininingwane, kusukela ngoFebhuwari 10 kuya kuFebhuwari 17, izinga lokusebenza kwezigayo zensimbi ezingama-247 ezweni libe ngu-79.54%, lenyuka ngo-1.12% isonto nesonto kanye no-9.96% unyaka nonyaka.Izinga lokusebenzisa amandla okwenza insimbi ye-blast furnace libe ngu-85.75%, elinyuke ngo-0.82% uma liqhathaniswa nenyanga edlule kanye no-10.31% uma liqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule.Izinga lenzuzo yezigayo zensimbi lalingu-35.93%, lehle ngo-2.60% kusukela enyangeni edlule kanye nama-45.02% kusukela ngonyaka odlule.Isilinganiso sansuku zonke sensimbi encibilikisiwe sasingamathani angu-2,308,100, ukwanda okungamathani angu-21,500 ngekota ngekota kanye namathani angu-278,800 unyaka nonyaka.Isilinganiso sokukhiqiza insimbi encibilikisiwe yansuku zonke sesiluleme amasonto ayisithupha elandelana, sikhuphuke ngo-4.54% kusukela ekuqaleni konyaka.Umthamo wezimpahla zokwakha kuzwelonke uphinde walulama ukusuka kumathani angama-96,900 ngoFebhuwari 10 kuya kumathani angama-20,100 ngoFebhuwari 20.
NgokukaZhao Yi, kusukela kule datha engenhla, uma kuqhathaniswa namasonto amabili okuqala ngemva koMkhosi Wasentwasahlobo, izinga lokuqalisa kabusha kwebhizinisi kwamabhizinisi angaphansi komfula ngemva koMkhosi Wezibani ngosuku lwe-15 lwenyanga yokuqala yenyanga lenyuke kakhulu.Isidingo saqala ukukhuphula umkhakha wabamnyama, saphinde saholela emananini entengo ye-iron ore esikhathini esizayo anyukele phezulu.
Kodwa-ke, abanye abangaphakathi bathi nakuba intengo yenkontileka eyinhloko ye-iron ore ikusasa iqhubeka nokukhuphuka kulo nyaka, ukusebenza okuphelele kwentengo yayo nokukhuphuka kusebuthakathaka kunenkomba ye-Platts, i-SGX kanye nenani le-port spot, okubonisa ukuthi ukusebenza kwentengo. yemakethe yekusasa lase-China isazinzile uma iqhathaniswa nenani langaphandle.Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ikusasa lensimbi yasekhaya lamukela uhlelo lokulethwa ngokomzimba, futhi izinyathelo zokulawula ubungozi ziqinile ngokuqhathaniswa.Imakethe ihamba kahle futhi ihlelekile.Ezimweni eziningi, intengo yekusasa nokukhuphuka kuphansi kunenkomba ye-Platts kanye nokuphuma kokuphuma phesheya kwezilwandle.
Ngokukhuphuka kwe-iron ore, i-Dalian Exchange isanda kukhipha isaziso sesexwayiso sengozi yemakethe: muva nje, umthelela wokusebenza kwemakethe wezinto ezingaqinisekile kakhulu, insimbi yensimbi nezinye izinhlobo zokuntengantenga kwentengo;Zonke izinhlangano zezimakethe zimenywa ukuthi zibambe iqhaza ngokuphusile nangokuthobela, zivikele futhi zilawule ubungozi, futhi ziqinisekise ukusebenza kahle kwemakethe.Ukushintshana kuzoqhubeka nokuqinisa ukugadwa kwansuku zonke, ukuphenya ngokujulile futhi kujezise zonke izinhlobo zokwephulwa, nokugcina ukuhleleka kwemakethe.
Ngokukhuphuka kwamanani ensimbi, kungenzeka yini ukuthi kube nokugcwala ngokweqile kwempahla yensimbi emachwebeni?Sinjani isimo sokuthunyelwa kwensimbi emachwebeni?Ephendula, u-Qiu Yihong utshele i-China Times ukuthi i-iron ore ePort 45 inyuke yafinyelela kumathani ayi-141,107,200 ekupheleni kwesonto eledlule, okuwukunyuka kwamathani ayi-1,004,400 isonto nesonto kanye nokwehla ngamathani ayi-19,233,300 unyaka nonyaka- unyaka.Inombolo yezinsuku ngaphansi kwechweba iqhubekile nokuba buthaka, yehle yafika ezingeni eliphansi kakhulu ngesikhathi esifanayo.Mayelana nezinhlobo zamaminerali, isitokwe se-ore ecolekile ngokuyisisekelo singaphansi kwezinga elimaphakathi lenkathi efanayo.Ngesonto eledlule, isitokwe se-gamp ore ne-pellet ore sikhuphuke ngokusobala.I-stock of lump ore kanye ne-pellet ore yayisezingeni eliphezulu lenkathi efanayo, futhi isitokwe se-iron concentrate powder sasizinzile ezingeni eliphezulu lesikhathi esifanayo.
“Ngokombono womthombo, ukwanda okukhulu ngesonto eledlule kube nesandla yi-Australia neBrazil, kuze kube manje kulo nyaka umkhuba ocace kakhulu wokukhuphuka kwe-oscillation, kodwa kusenegebe elikhulu uma kuqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule, ngesonto eledlule emayini yase-Australia naseBrazil. i-inventory eyisisekelo ukusebenza okuzinzile, imayini yase-Australia isesezingeni eliphansi lenkathi efanayo, ingcindezi yokusungula ilula uma kuqhathaniswa, izinga eliphezulu lokusungula imayini yaseBrazil lisazinzile ezingeni eliphezulu lesikhathi esifanayo, kodwa futhi liphansi kakhulu kunesikhathi esifanayo. ngonyaka odlule.” kusho uQiu Yihong.
Ingene esikhathini sokuqamba amanga
Yini elandelayo ngamanani ensimbi?"Ngokombono wethu, kunezici ezimbili ezibalulekile ezizothinta amanani entengo yensimbi yesikhathi esizayo," kusho u-Qiu Yihong etshela i-China Times.'Okunye ukutholwa kabusha kwesidingo, kanti okunye ukulawulwa kwenqubomgomo.'Ukufunwa kwe-iron ngokwezinga elikhulu kusancike ekulungisweni kwenzuzo.Izinzuzo zemishini yensimbi ye-247 zikhuphuke iminyaka emihlanu elandelanayo kulo nyaka, zilulama zisuka ku-19.91% zaya ku-38.53%, kodwa zibuyele kumaphesenti angu-35.93 ngesonto eledlule.
“Lokhu kuqhathaniswa negebe leminyaka edlule liselikhulu kakhulu, futhi kukhombisa ukuthi uhlelo lokubuyiselwa kwenzuzo yensimbi lusagcwele izithiyo ezithile zameva, inqubo yokululama inzima ukufezeka ngobusuku obubodwa, futhi kusukela emayini yensimbi ethengwa kwamanye amazwe iyatholakala. izinsuku zesimo esiphansi somlando, inzuzo yensimbi yokugaya ihlale izulazula onqenqemeni lwenzuzo nokulahlekelwa, futhi lokhu kusathinta isigqi sokugcwalisa isigayo sensimbi, isigqi sokugcwalisa sisahamba kancane.”Kusho uQiu Yihong.
Idatha ibonisa ukuthi izigayo zensimbi ezingu-247 zamanje zingenisa i-iron ore yokusungula amathani ayizigidi ezingu-92.371, isilinganiso sokugcina nokusetshenziswa kwezinsuku ezingu-32.67, kuyilapho izigayo zensimbi ezingu-64 zingenisa izinsuku ezijwayelekile zezinsuku ezingu-18 kuphela, zisenkathini yomlando ephansi kakhulu, ephansi. impahla yensimbi eluhlaza isiphenduke ukwanda okukhulu okungaba khona kwesidingo se-iron ore ngemuva kokuqalwa kabusha kokukhiqiza.

U-Qiu Yihong uthe, kusukela ngesonto eledlule ukukhiqizwa kwensimbi kanye nedatha yokusungula nakho kungaqinisekiswa.Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukululama sekukonke kokukhiqizwa kwenqubo ende kuyizimpawu ezisobala kakhulu zokuthikamezeka, ukukhiqizwa kwe-rebar ngenqubo ende ngokuyisisekelo akuzange kukhule kakhulu, futhi ukubuyiswa kokukhiqizwa kwe-rebar ngemva koMkhosi Wasentwasahlobo ngokuyisisekelo kunikelelwe ukuqaliswa kabusha kokukhiqiza. ngenqubo emfushane.Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ingcindezi enqwabelene yezigayo zensimbi isezingeni eliphezulu, ngakho ukuzimisela ukuqalisa kabusha ukukhiqiza ngenqubo ende nakho kuzobekelwa inselele.Ngaphezu kwalokho, i-scrap isesesaphulelo ezindlekweni zensimbi encibilikisiwe, inzuzo yokusebenza kwezindleko ze-scrap izoba nomkhawulo othize wesidingo sensimbi yensimbi, ngakho-ke ukubuyiswa kwesikhala sensimbi yensimbi kusalindeleke ukuba kube. ngaphansi kwengcindezi, okuphinde kube yisici esikhulu esithinta intengo yesikhathi esizayo ye-iron ore esizayo.

Imininingwane iphinde yakhombisa ukuthi ngesonto lika-Feb 16, abaculi abangama-64 ababalwe nguMysteel babenezinsuku eziyi-18 ezitholakalayo, ezingashintshile kusukela ngesonto eledlule futhi zehle ngezinsuku eziyi-13 unyaka nonyaka.“Ngesikhathi esifushane naphakathi, kokubili ukuhlinzekwa kanye nesidingo sensimbi kuyakhula.Uhlangothi lokunikezela, kusewuhambo olujwayelekile lokuthunyelwa kwemayini ngaphandle kwesizini, ukunikezwa okuphansi kubonisiwe, ikusasa lingakhuphuka.Ngasohlangothini lwesidingo, inkambiso yokukhiqiza kanye nokuqaliswa kabusha komsebenzi kwamabhizinisi aphansi ngemuva koMkhosi Wasentwasahlobo usalokhu ungashintshile.Isivivinyo sangempela siwukuthi iqiniso lingahlangabezana yini nalokho okulindelekile.”Kusho uQiu Yihong.

Kuyaphawuleka ukuthi uZhao Yi utshele i-China Times ukuthi uJanuwari kwakuyinkathi ebuthakathaka yokufunwa, kodwa insimbi yensimbi nezinto eziqediwe zahlala ziqinile, okuyimbangela yokulindela okuqinile ngemva kweholide Lomkhosi Wasentwasahlobo.Njengamanje, isingene enkathini yokufuna ukukhohlisa, engase iqhubeke kuze kube maphakathi no-April.Ngemuva kokuqaliswa kabusha kokukhiqizwa nokusebenza kwangemva kweholide, akukaziwa ukuthi isidingo ngoMashi no-Ephreli singahlangabezana noma sidlule okulindelekile.

Ukulingana kokulindela kanye namaqiniso kuzoba ukhiye wokuthonya uchungechunge lwezimboni zabamnyama esikhathini esizayo.U-Zhao Yi uthe, entengo ye-iron ore yesikhathi esizayo ifake okulindelwe okufudumele, uma ufuna ukuqhubeka nomkhuba okhuphukayo, udinga ukutholwa kwesiphetho esingokoqobo ukuze uqinisekise;Uma kungenjalo, amanani entengo ye-iron ore esizayo abhekana nengcindezi yasemuva.

“Izintengo ze-iron ore esikhathini esizayo zingase zikhuphuke kakhulu esikhathini esifushane.Uma ubheka isikhathi eside, inzuzo yezimboni zensimbi iphansi, ukwehla kwezimboni zezakhiwo akukashintshi, ikusasa le-iron ore alinazo izimo zokuqhubeka nokukhuphuka esimweni esingaqinisekile esisezansi nomfula.”Kusho uZhao Yi.