Ukukhula kweChina emazweni angaphandle kulindeleke ukuthi kwehle ngekota yesibili yalo nyaka, ngokombiko we-China Economic and Financial Outlook Report okhishwe yi-Research Institute of the Bank of China."Sekuhlanganiswe ndawonye, ​​​​ukwehla kokuthengiswa kwe-China kulindeleke ukuthi kwehle kuze kufike kumaphesenti ama-4 kwikota yesibili."“Kusho umbiko.
Ngokwalo mbiko, ukukhula kweChina emazweni angaphandle kuzohlala kuntekenteke ngo-2023 ngenxa yokuthuthuka okuqhubekayo kwesimo sezombangazwe nezomnotho samazwe ngamazwe, isidingo esivilaphayo saphesheya kwezilwandle, ukusekelwa kwamanani okuba buthaka kanye nesisekelo esiphezulu ngo-2022. Ukuthengiswa kwe-China kwehle ngamaphesenti angu-6.8 ngokwedola phakathi NgoJanuwari noFebhuwari kusukela ngonyaka odlule.
Ngokombono wabalingani abakhulu bohwebo, inkambiso yokwehluka ekuhwebeni kweShayina kwamanye amazwe yandile.Kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuFebruwari 2023, ukuthunyelwa kwe-China e-United States kwaqhubeka nokukhula kabi, kwehle ngo-21.8% unyaka nonyaka, okungamaphesenti angu-2.3 amakhulu kunalawo ngo-December 2022. Ukuthunyelwa kwe-European Union nase-Japan kwehle kancane, kodwa izinga lokukhula namanje akuzange kube nemiphumela emihle, ngokulandelana -12.2% kanye -1.3%.Ukuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe ku-ASEAN kukhule ngokushesha, kwasheshisa ngamaphesenti angu-1.5 amaphuzu unyaka nonyaka kuya ku-9% kusukela ngoDisemba 2022.
Ngokombono wesakhiwo somkhiqizo, ukwanda kokuthekelisa kwemikhiqizo ekhuphuka nomfula kanye nezimoto kuphezulu, kuyilapho ukuthunyelwa kwemikhiqizo edinga abasebenzi abaningi kuqhubeke nokwehla.Kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuFebhuwari 2023, ukuthunyelwa kwemikhiqizo kawoyela ocolisisiwe kanye nemikhiqizo yensimbi kukhuphuke ngo-101.8% no-27.5%, ngokulandelana.Izinga lokukhula konyaka nonyaka lezimoto kanye ne-chassis nezingxenye zezimoto bekungama-65.2% no-4%, ngokulandelana.Isibalo sezimoto ezithunyelwa ngaphandle (amayunithi angama-370,000) sifinyelele irekhodi eliphezulu, lenyuka ngamaphesenti angama-68.2 unyaka nonyaka, libe negalelo elingamaphesenti angama-60.3 ekukhuleni kwenani lezimoto ezithunyelwa ngaphandle.
Ngokombiko, ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwefenisha, amathoyizi, amapulasitiki, izicathulo nemikhiqizo yezingubo kuyaqhubeka nokuwa, njengoba umnotho othuthukile eYurophu nase-United States unesidingo esibuthakathaka sezimpahla ezihlala isikhathi eside zabathengi, umjikelezo wokukhishwa kwempahla ezinkampani awukapheli, futhi amazwe abakhiqizi anjalo. njengoba i-Vietnam, i-Mexico kanye ne-India bethathe ingxenye yokuthunyelwa kwe-China kwamanye amazwe emikhakheni edinga abasebenzi abaningi.Behle ngo-17.2%, 10.1%, 9.7%, 11.6% no-14.7%, abengu-2.6, 0.7, 7, 13.8 kanye namaphesenti angu-4.4 ngaphezu kukaDisemba 2022, ngokulandelana.
Kodwa ukukhula kweChina kwamanye amazwe kwakungcono kunokulindeleke ezimakethe, ukwehla kwehle ngamaphesenti angu-3.1 kusukela ngoDisemba 2022. Ngokombiko, izizathu eziyinhloko zalesi simo esingenhla yilezi ezilandelayo:
Okokuqala, isidingo samazwe ngamazwe singcono kunokulindelekile.Ngenkathi i-PMI yokukhiqiza yase-US ISM isalokhu isendaweni yenkontileka ngoFebhuwari, ikhuphuke ngamaphesenti angama-0.3 ukusuka ngoJanuwari yaya kumaphesenti angama-47.7, ukuthuthuka kokuqala ezinyangeni eziyisithupha.Ukuzethemba kwabathengi kuphinde kwaba ngcono e-Europe nase-Japan.Kusukela kunkomba yesilinganiso sempahla, kusukela maphakathi noFebhuwari, inkomba ye-Baltic dry bulk index (BDI), inkomba yezinga lokuthunyelwa kweziqukathi zasogwini (TDOI) yaqala ukwehla iye phezulu.Okwesibili, ukuqalwa kabusha komsebenzi nokukhiqiza ngemuva kweholide eChina kwasheshiswa, kwaqedwa amaphuzu okuvimbela ochungechungeni lwezimboni kanye nokuthengiswa kwempahla, kanye nokusalela emuva kwama-oda ngesikhathi sokuqubuka kwalolu bhubhane kwakhululwa ngokugcwele, okuhlinzeka umfutho othile wokuthekelisa. ukukhula.Okwesithathu, izinhlobo ezintsha zohwebo lwangaphandle seziphenduke umgqugquzeli obalulekile wokukhula kokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe.Inkomba ye-e-commerce ewela umngcele ngekota yokuqala ka-2023 yayiphezulu kunaleyo yangesikhathi esifanayo sika-2022, futhi umthamo webhizinisi laseZhejiang, Shandong, Shenzhen nezinye izifunda ezihamba phambili ekuthuthukisweni kwamafomu amasha ohwebo lwangaphandle ngokuvamile ukukhula okuphezulu konyaka nonyaka.Phakathi kwazo, ivolumu yokuthekelisa ye-e-commerce ewela umngcele eZhejiang kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuFebhuwari ikhuphuke ngo-73.2% unyaka nonyaka.
Lo mbiko ukholelwa ukuthi ukukhula kweChina emazweni angaphandle kulindeleke ukuthi kwehle ngekota yesibili, amathuba esakhiwo kufanele anakwe.Kusukela kusici sokudonsela phansi, ukulungiswa kwesidingo sangaphandle kunokungaqiniseki.Ukwehla kwamandla emali emhlabeni wonke kusalokhu kuphezulu futhi kunethuba elikhulu lokuthi umnotho othuthukile e-Europe nase-United States uzokhuphula izinga lenzalo “ngezinyathelo zezingane” engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2023, okudambisa isidingo samazwe ngamazwe.Umjikelezo wokususwa kwesitoko wamazwe amakhulu athuthukile awukakapheli, futhi isilinganiso sokuthengiswa kwezinto eziningi e-United States sisebangeni eliphezulu elingaphezu kuka-1.5, akubonisi ukuthuthukiswa okuphawulekayo uma kuqhathaniswa nokuphela kuka-2022. Ngokufanayo Ngonyaka wezi-2022, isizinda sohwebo lwangaphandle saseShayina sasiphezulu uma kuqhathaniswa, nezinga lokukhula konyaka nonyaka lingama-16.3% ngoMeyi kanye no-17.1% ngoJuni.Ngenxa yalokho, ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kukhuphuke ngamaphesenti angu-12.4 engxenyeni yesibili.